The Looming Crisis:
How Oil Addiction and Agricultural Collapse Threaten Global Food Security

Global Food Insecurity

Tracy Turner ~ August 13, 2024

The implications of this situation are stark.

The Insidious, Looming Crisis of Starvation:

A Convergence of Agricultural Decline, Resource Depletion, and Environmental Catastrophe

Some people fear spiders or snakes, Ebola or Covid, but the terrifying truth that few wish to confront is the looming specter of hidden, impending starvation—a fate increasingly inevitable for a world unable to address its unsustainable trajectory.

Historical Context of Agriculture

The history of agriculture began around 9500 BC in the Levant, where early humans first cultivated essential crops like emmer wheat and hulled barley. These foundational practices facilitated the rise of complex societies. By 8000 BC, agriculture had already flourished along the Nile, and by 6200 BC in China, the cultivation of rice marked a significant advancement in agricultural development. This transition from nomadic hunting and gathering to settled farming laid the groundwork for the growth of human civilization (1)(2)(3).

The Modern Decline of Arable Land

Today, however, the modern era is witnessing a catastrophic decline in the very systems that once fueled human progress. Since 1400 AD, arable land has plummeted from approximately 3.5 billion hectares to 1.5 billion hectares—a staggering 57% reduction. This loss is driven by factors such as desertification, salinization, urban sprawl, and climate change. Sea level rise alone has swallowed about 0.1 billion hectares of once-productive land (4)(5)(6).

The Crisis of Oil Reserves

The depletion of arable land intersects with the dramatic decline in global oil reserves. Currently, around 1,000 billion barrels of oil remain, but this figure is rapidly shrinking due to a consumption rate of 35 billion barrels per year. At an estimated 2% annual depletion rate, reserves will dwindle to approximately 641 billion barrels by 2045, 236 billion by 2065, and 87 billion by 2085. This trajectory is not just a statistic; it signifies a dire consequence for global agriculture (7)(8).

Oil is not merely a fuel; it is the lifeblood of modern farming. It powers machinery, transports goods, and produces fertilizers. With a linear model suggesting a 0.5% reduction in farm output per 1% drop in oil availability, the decline in agricultural productivity will be severe. This issue is compounded by the increasing cost and environmental impact of extracting the remaining reserves.

Implications for Food Security

The implications of this situation are stark. By 2045, localized food scarcity will begin to affect vulnerable populations. By 2065, food shortages will become widespread, leading to routine starvation. By 2085, as oil reserves near depletion, the global food supply could collapse, with 40-50% of the population facing severe food scarcity and widespread starvation. This isn't a distant possibility; it is a looming reality if current trends persist (9)(10).

Depletion of Essential Nutrients

Adding to this grim scenario are the looming phosphorus and potassium shortages. These essential nutrients, crucial for plant growth, are depleting due to overuse and inadequate replenishment. The reliance on finite resources like phosphate rock and potassium salts is a critical concern. Without these nutrients, the yield of staple crops will plummet, further exacerbating food shortages (11)(12).

Environmental Degradation

Compounding these issues is the historical reliance on slash-and-burn agriculture and other unsustainable practices that degrade soil quality and erode arable land. Modern agricultural systems are further strained by environmental impacts, including pollution and climate change. This degradation not only reduces land productivity but also contributes to a feedback loop of worsening climate conditions (13)(14).

The Insufficiency of Technological Solutions

Despite technological advancements and the potential of alternative energy sources, these solutions are not yet sufficient to address the immediate crises. The narrative of "pending innovations" distracts from the urgent need to confront these hard truths. The systemic issues of oil dependency, agricultural collapse, and resource depletion demand immediate, comprehensive action.

Future Conflicts Over Resources

As oil and arable land become increasingly scarce, conflicts over these resources will intensify. Future geopolitical tensions may revolve around oil-rich regions and fertile land, leading to new alliances based on resource access. By 2045, conflicts may arise over dwindling Middle Eastern and Arctic oil fields. By 2065, agricultural land will become a focal point of contention, and by 2085, resource wars could dominate global geopolitics.

The Urgency of Systemic Change

The lavish consumption patterns of today are not only unsustainable but also set the stage for a catastrophic future. The "Too Big to Fail" mantra of the US Government takes on a grim irony as overpopulation and environmental degradation continue unchecked. The affluent few, insulated from the harsh realities faced by the majority, may soon confront a level of scarcity currently unimaginable. The widening gap between our current lifestyle and the looming specter of widespread starvation underscores the urgent need for systemic change.

As we advance towards this potentially dystopian future, the focus must shift from speculative solutions to addressing the immediate, tangible crises. The historical and ongoing degradation of agricultural systems, coupled with the unsustainable depletion of oil and essential nutrients, presents a clear and present danger. The time for action is now, before the crises we ignore today become the catastrophes of tomorrow. There are some factors to consider in assessing where modern agriculture is heading and whether or not there will be impending famine. Is there already famine in the world, that the rose-colored glasses people purposely overlook? Then there is what I call, "Magic Oil." Magic Oil is oil that only exists in bean counters' brains, Magic Oil does not exist in the ground, but it makes people feel good about wasting gasoline, they don;'t wish to equate wasting gasoline with their grandchildren starving. Another avenue is to harpoon the journalist - do you believe harpooning Post-Peak Oil journalists will put more oil in the ground? The last are what I call "Magic Techs." They look at a burgeoning human population, oil fields going offline, crop failures from Global Warming, the Phosphorus and Potassium shortfalls and they conclude it all with rose colored math, based on rose-hued Tech. It is the Technocrats that have caused this mess, and now they promise Pie-in-the-Sky while doing pretty much nothing, ergo the status quo.

Population Dynamics and Societal Implications

The Earth’s population has experienced significant growth, doubling approximately every 40 years since the mid-20th century. This rapid increase has slowed in recent decades, with global birth rates declining; however, there are still around 4 billion couples worldwide capable of procreation. In developed nations, societal norms have often prioritized lavish lifestyles and consumerism over sustainable family planning, leading to a culture where excess is celebrated. This trend contributes to environmental degradation through overconsumption and pollution, including microplastics. As we approach 2095 A.D., projections indicate that 1.3 billion humans may face starvation, prompting future generations to question how such disparities arose amidst unprecedented wealth and resource availability.

Assumptions

1.   Oil Reserves Depletion Rate: Oil reserves are depleting at a certain rate, contributing to increased energy and food production issues.

2.   Famine Deaths: Famine deaths are influenced by a combination of factors, including oil depletion, climate change, pollution, soil degradation, and other environmental and socio-economic issues.

3.   Exponential Increase: Given the compounding nature of these issues, famine deaths are expected to rise significantly over the decades.

Conceptual Data

Let's assume the following hypothetical figures for famine deaths:

• 2024: 10 million deaths (baseline, before significant impacts of peak oil and other factors are fully felt)

• 2034: 20 million deaths (an increase due to initial impacts)

• 2044: 40 million deaths (continued increase with compounding factors)

• 2054: 80 million deaths

• 2064: 160 million deaths

• 2074: 320 million deaths

• 2084: 640 million deaths

• 2094: 1.3 billion deaths (approaching the threshold of significant global impact)

The implications of this situation are stark.

References

1. Smith, B. D. (1998). The Emergence of Agriculture. Scientific American, 278(3), 76-83.

2. Harlan, J. R. (1992). Crops and Man. American Society of Agronomy.

3. Bellwood, P. (2005). First Farmers: The Origins of Agricultural Societies. Blackwell Publishing.

4. Myers, N., & Kent, J. (2003). The New Economy of Nature: The Quest to Make Conservation Profitable. Island Press.

5. Lal, R. (2001). Soil Degradation by Erosion. Land Degradation & Development, 12(6), 519-539.

6. IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

7. BP. (2023). Statistical Review of World Energy. British Petroleum.

8. EIA. (2023). International Energy Outlook. U.S. Energy Information Administration.

9. FAO. (2022). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Food and Agriculture Organization.

10. Godfray, H. C. J., et al. (2010). Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science, 327(5967), 812-818.

11. Cordell, D., Drangert, J. O., & White, S. (2009). The Story of Phosphorus: Global Food Security and Food for Thought. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 292-305.

12. Jones, C. S., & Obreza, T. A. (2019). Soil Fertility and Nutrient Management. University of Florida IFAS Extension.

13. Tilman, D., et al. (2001). Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Environmental Changes. Science, 292(5515), 281-284.

14. Rockström, J., et al. (2009). A Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475.

Tracy Turner was born into a family of farmers, Horticulturists and Oil Company employees. He has written for OpEdNews, Beforeitsnews, Activist Post, Olivebiodiesel.com and ThePeoplesVoice. He is still wondering when America will realize its "way of life" is eating the last cookie in the jar, just before starvation sets in.